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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/25 11:45

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans lead at midday, albeit off the morning highs with corn flat and 
wheat lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 120. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 7 lower. Energies are 
firmer with crude up 0.12. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold up $1.50. 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed with two sided trade; corn is looking to 
consolidate after the recent gains. Mother Nature is providing some wet harvest 
conditions which are noted slowing harvest progress in many areas, with a few 
spots moving along quickly with the advanced maturity. Ethanol margins remain 
tight with futures edging a bit higher this morning, with blender margins 
remaining strong with the rest of the energy complex. Corn basis will likely 
see more pressure harvest here in the near term but delays could limit pressure 
in some areas. The weekly crop progress had conditions  1% higher at 69% good 
to excellent, and 12% poor to very poor with 97% dented, 5 percentage points 
above average, 72% mature vs. 53% on average, and 16% harvested vs. 11% on 
average. On the December chart the 10-day, at $3.52, and 20-day at 3.57 today 
are our support levels. Resistance is at the $3.67 1/2 50-day then the $3.69 
3/4 one-month high. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher with trade fading from the 17 cent 
higher move this morning with trade focusing on improved export possibilities 
to South America. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points 
higher. Soybean basis remains historically wide across the belt with storage 
and shipping concerns continuing to dominate with the recent uptick in fresh 
sales needing to be sustained in the near term. Crush margins remain strong 
with oil starting to show broader strength with palm oil firming as well. Early 
planting in South America is underway with conditions on the dry side going in 
but no major concerns expected at this juncture with Southern Brazil turning 
wetter. The Brazilian and Argentine currencies remain historically cheap. The 
weekly crop progress was 1% better at 68% good to excellent, and 10% poor to 
very poor with 71% dropping leaves vs. 57% on average and 14% harvested vs, 8% 
on average. On the November chart support is the 20-day at $8.37 with the 
10-day below that at $8.35, with resistance the recent high at $8.58 scored 
this morning. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 7 cents lower at midday with range bound trade 
continuing with trade slowly building a better trend but unable to sustain 
broader strength in recent days. The U.S. dollar is at the bottom of the recent 
range with better footing expected ahead of the Fed rate hike anticipated to be 
coming on Wednesday. Russia will continue to work on spring wheat harvest and 
winter wheat planting with little change in the weather patterns, with harvest 
in Canada trying to finish as well. Australia looks to continue the recent 
weather pattern with more feed grain imports possible. Matif wheat is slightly 
lower this morning. The weekly crop progress showed spring wheat harvest 
complete, and winter wheat planting at 28% complete vs. 26% on average. On the 
December Kansas City chart, we have support at the 10-day at $5.19 with 
resistance at the 20-day at $5.25, which we have edged below this morning. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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